A shocking new COVID-19 forecast that was presented by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) shows a possible coronavirus toll growth to 200,000 cases and 3,000 deaths daily by June 1.
The dangerous forecast is allowed to-be comes as Americans begin to grossly neglect strict social distancing requirements and have gone opening their businesses to workers and customers at President Donald Trump’s instructed.
Following the possible result by June 1st as forecasted by FEMA, 3,000 deaths per day would amount to 90,000 deaths in a month. It will then become a 70% increase from the current average of 1,750 per day. The number of current cases of COVID-19 in the nation is about 25,000 daily.
The forecast which was joined into a chart that was prepared by FEMA that includes information from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention could possibly be linked to both relaxed safety measures across the nation and increased testing that will uncover more cases.
The forecast, which was first published by The New York Times, shows that cases are on the rise in areas around the Great Lakes, in Southern California and in parts of the South and the Northeast.
“The vast majority of Americans have not been exposed to the virus, there is not immunity, and the initial conditions that allowed this virus to spread really quickly across America haven’t really changed,” Johns Hopkins University infectious disease specialist Dr. Larry Chang told the Times.
The Washington Post reported that the model was created by Justin Lessler, associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins. He told the Post that the information was a “work in progress” that included a range of possibilities and was not intended as a completed “forecast.” He told the Post, however, that the numbers indicate how quickly COVID-19 could spin out of control, depending on political actions taken.
“There are reopening scenarios where it could get out of control very quickly,” Lessler warned.
The White House downplayed the report, claiming that the forecast hasn’t been checked by President Trump’s coronavirus officials yet.
“This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed,” deputy press secretary Judd Deere said.
New projections from CDC in documents obtained by New York Times shows steady rise in number of cases and deaths from #covid19 over next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1st and about 200,000 new cases each day by end of the month. https://t.co/nhk6dGKMYf
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) May 4, 2020
However, Trump has only raised his own prediction of 60,000 COVID-19 deaths, made just last month, to up to a total of 100,000. “In terms of death … we’re at the lower level, the lowest level predicted,” the president said on Sunday.
White House coronavirus task force health adviser Dr. Deborah Birx said in an interview Sunday that “our projections have always been” between 100,000 and 240,000 American lives lost, and that’s with “full mitigation,” meaning safety measures and social distancing.
As we write, there are more than 1.1 million confirmed cases in the U.S., with about 70,000 confirmed deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic.
IHME just updated their model, and showed a sharp increase in the number of projected deaths to 134,475. This is in addition to an earlier CDC model that was reported on by @nytimes that showed cases (and deaths) continuing to increase through May. pic.twitter.com/JvWUO7wSLe
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) May 4, 2020
