Washington and Oregon voters are in an unusual position in the profoundly blue states: they could play a critical role in determining Republican control of the House, bringing these traditionally predictable areas into the spotlight.
As always, voter turnout will be the deciding factor. However, low Democratic enthusiasm, fueled in part by the unpopularity of Vice President Kamala Harris at the head of the ticket, as well as the backlash against Democratic support for Israel, might tip two seats to Republicans and help the party retain a third of these battleground districts.
Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s reelection campaign in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District is one of the most keenly watched this cycle, owing to the district’s distinct political terrain.
Chavez-DeRemer won the seat by two points against her far-left competitor in 2022, turning it from blue to red, mainly due to her appeal to rural voters in Marion and Linn counties, while losing in more liberal districts such as Oregon Clackamas and Multnomah.
The district remains a toss-up, with over 40% of voters identifying as independent or unaffiliated.
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Chavez-DeRemer has prioritized local issues such as crime, inflation, and homelessness, establishing herself as a realistic, bipartisan voice. However, this time, the challenge is more difficult.
Democrat Janelle Bynum, a state lawmaker, has strong name recognition and backing from senior Democratic leaders who regard this seat as vital to restoring control of the House.
Furthermore, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent heavily on attack commercials portraying Chavez-DeRemer as a political, MAGA radical. They are even paying campaigners in San Francisco to ring Bynum’s doorbell.
When it comes to running for the state legislature as an independent, Bynum has historically done well.
Chavez-DeRemer’s significant money advantage may help her to out-communicate Bynum, but she must navigate a district that is turning more purple, and possibly even blue, as the national political climate continues to polarize voters.
However, the district is changing demographically. As younger, more liberal voters come into Clackamas County, Republicans are finding it increasingly difficult to keep their hold on a seat that includes a portion of far-left Portland.
Will Joe Kent succeed the second time around?
Republican Joe Kent is fighting Democrat incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, in what is shaping up to be one of the most contested House elections of 2024.
The district, which encompasses Vancouver, Battle Ground, and Kelso, has traditionally supported Republicans, but Gluesenkamp Perez flipped the seat in 2022, defeating Kent by less than 1%.
Kent, a former Green Beret, Gold Star husband, and Trump-endorsed candidate, was hampered by Republican infighting after upsetting moderate incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler in the primary, and former President Donald Trump was a stumbling block for Republicans nationwide.
This time around, Kent has modified his campaign plan, concentrating less on contentious subjects like election integrity and abortion and more on economic concerns, the opioid crisis, immigration, and local infrastructure needs such as replacing the outdated I-5 bridge.
He has also learned from past failures, prioritizing early voting and reaching out to a larger voter base.
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