Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential nomination race with a 37-point advantage over Ron DeSantis among likely GOP primary rivals.
The poll shows Trump holding decisive advantages across almost every demographic group and region, as well as among both moderates and conservatives within the party.
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Republican voters have waved away concerns about Trump’s escalating legal jeopardy, indicating a strong willingness to support him despite any potential legal challenges.
Trump leads by wide margins among men and women, younger and older voters, those who went to college and those who didn’t, and in cities, suburbs, and rural areas.
Overall, Trump leads DeSantis 54% to 17%, with no other candidate topping 3% support in the poll. The dominance of these top-line figures presents a significant challenge for DeSantis, whose central campaign arguments – that he is more electable than Trump and would govern more effectively – have so far failed to break through among Republican voters. Even those motivated by issues that have fueled DeSantis’ rise, such as fighting “radical woke ideology,” still favor Trump.
Trump’s grip on the Republican Party is also evident in the intensity of his support. While DeSantis is well-liked, with a favorable rating of 66% among Republicans, Trump’s rating stands at 76%, with 43% of Republicans holding a “very favorable” opinion of him.
This cohort of “very favorable” voters overwhelmingly backs Trump in a one-on-one race with DeSantis, with a 92% to 7% margin.
Despite concerns about Trump’s legal troubles, including his indictment by a federal grand jury on charges of mishandling classified documents and his receipt of a target letter in an election interference case, only 17% of Republicans see him as having committed any serious federal crimes.
This perception doesn’t seem to affect Trump’s support significantly, as even among voters who believe he has committed serious federal crimes, he still receives 22% in a head-to-head matchup with DeSantis.
DeSantis’ ability to break through on policy arguments alone against Trump also faces challenges. On issues ranging from acceptance of transgender people as the gender they identify with to sending aid to Ukraine and reducing the budget deficit, Trump holds commanding leads among Republicans.
Even on the topic of abortion, where DeSantis has signed a strict six-week ban that Trump criticized as “too harsh,” Trump still enjoys the support of 70% of Republicans who strongly back such a measure.
Despite these challenges, DeSantis’ campaign remains resilient, with his political team emphasizing his overall positive image with GOP voters as a solid foundation for his candidacy.
DeSantis has also sought to appeal to more upscale pockets of the electorate, where he narrows the margin with Trump among white voters with college degrees and higher earners. His “blue-collar” roots and military service are touted as reasons to support him over Trump.
However, the poll underscores the difficulty DeSantis faces in unseating Trump, as even in a hypothetical one-on-one race, Trump still leads 62% to 31%.
This margin reinforces the view that Trump is poised to trounce any unified opposition and further solidify his dominance in the Republican presidential nomination race.
The survey, coming less than six months before the first 2024 primary contest and before a single debate, adds another layer of unpredictability to an era of American politics defined by volatility.
Trump’s legal troubles, as his trials threaten to overlap with primary season, represent a wild card that could potentially impact the race.
For now, however, the poll indicates that Trump perfectly aligns with the surly mood of the Republican electorate, 89% of whom see the nation as headed in the wrong direction.
Republicans appear eager to take the fight to the Democrats, with many viewing Trump as the leader who can deliver results, despite any criticism of his behavior or potential legal challenges.
As the campaign unfolds, the dynamics may shift, and DeSantis’ campaign may find ways to gain traction. But for the time being, the New York Times/Siena College poll highlights the formidable challenge ahead for DeSantis in his bid to unseat Trump and secure the Republican presidential nomination.
